Making Psychological Therapy 10% More Effective.

Each year, for the next decade.

I became a psychologist for the same reason most mental health clinicians do: to make a dent in suffering.

For years, my day looked like this: six to eight clients back-to-back, three or four days a week. The work was intense, and it was also deeply meaningful. Watching someone move from stuck to unstuck—from self-criticism to self-compassion, from avoidance to action—never gets old.

And then, about two years ago, I took a break from seeing face-to-face clients.

That decision was genuinely sad. Therapy is a uniquely human craft. The relationships, the trust, the personalities. The moment a client realises “oh… you actually get it”. 

I could see the impact therapy made in people’s lives, and given that I’ve always measured outcomes, I could zoom out and see I was making a difference. The graph below charts DASS-21 scores, comparing suffering at the first session, and at discharge among the 349 clients I worked with in those years. On average, people came in with “Moderate” psychological distress, and left with “Mild” symptoms.

But I was burnt out, and I kept returning to a simple question:

If I care about reducing suffering, where can I have the biggest impact?

For me, the answer became: build tools that help every psychologist be more effective—rather than being one psychologist who helps a hundred people a year.

That’s what NovoPsych is about.

Therapy works (and it stacks up well against other well established treatments)

It’s easy to forget this in the day-to-day grind, but the evidence is clear:

Psychological therapy is effective.

A simple way I sometimes explain this (to non-researchers) is a “percentage” frame:

  • The average person who receives psychotherapy ends up better off than about 75% of people who don’t get therapy (Cohen’s d ≈ 0.7)

  • SSRI medication, in broad terms, often lands closer to “better off than ~62%”.

And when you compare therapy to other lifestyle or health interventions, it holds its own:

  • Psychological therapy is 5 times more effective at producing happiness, compared with paracetamol’s benefit for back pain (d = 0.15)

  • Doubling income produces only a small boost in life satisfaction (roughly d ≈ 0.2), making therapy about 3.5× stronger on “happiness” by this metric.

  • Inhaled corticosteroids for asthma symptoms are often in the small–moderate range (around d ≈ 0.55), making therapy ~30% more effective than this medication. 

Psychologists intuitively understand that therapy can be profoundly life-changing and the statistics confirm this.

…and yet, a big chunk of people still don’t get better

Even with effective treatments, real-world outcomes are messy.

In Australia, a recent large “real-world practice” analysis of Better Access episodes (over 86,000 episodes, Perkis, Buchanan et al, 2026) found improvement in about 50–60% of episodes, while 20–30% showed no meaningful change and 10–20% deteriorated. 

That aligns with what every clinician sees in their caseload: some clients improve quickly, some move slowly, and some… don’t move.

So the real question becomes:

What if weere able to lift the whole distribution—without burning out clinicians?

The simplest lever we have: Measurement-Based Care (MBC)

Measurement-Based Care is one of those ideas that is so obvious it’s almost annoying:

Measurement-Based Care is systematically measuring symptoms and functioning, and the use of results to guide clinical decisions for the individual in front of you. 

In practice, it means:

  • baseline measure (to help assessment/formulation, for example with the DASS-21 or PHQ-9),
  • regular progress monitoring (every session or two),
  • and using that feedback to adjust treatment

Measurement based care does two things brilliantly:

  1. It makes the invisible visible (clients often love seeing their experience “made tangible”).
  2. It catches “off-track” therapy early—before dropout, deterioration, or 10 sessions of politely going nowhere.

How much does MBC improve outcomes (Cohen’s d)?

A high-quality meta-analysis of measurement feedback systems found a small but real average improvement:

  • d ≈ 0.14 overall, and

  • d ≈ 0.29 for “not-on-track” clients (the group we most want to rescue).

That “small” effect matters because it’s applied at scale. A small effect, multiplied by thousands of clients, becomes a very big human impact.

The sad truth is, even though MBC is shown to improve therapy outcomes across modalities, and clinicians know it, some have been slow to adopt (Chung & Buchanan, 2018; Jensen-Doss et al., 2026). 

Nevertheless, those that are using MBC are seeing the benefits. NovoPsych helps thousands of clinicians each week engaged in MBC. 

The work the NovoPsych team has done is incredible. Here’s what I told our internal team in last week’s staff meeting:

  • Each month, about 100,000 clients receive measurement-based care facilitated by NovoPsych (e.g., progress monitoring with tools like DASS-21).
  • Because MBC helps more clients meaningful benefit from therapy, that’s a lot more people experiencing relief that they otherwise might not have had.  Using Cohen’s d as the primary metric, our internal “happiness adjusted” estimate is that the MBC impact is about 20,000 therapy-equivalent clients per month. That’s 240,000 people per year who have meaningful improvement because of NovoPsych’s tools. 

That’s the part that still hits me emotionally.

Because it means: even though I’m not in the therapy room anymore, the work is still deeply clinical—it’s just clinical at scale.

Improving therapy outcomes, 10% more effective each year:

I’m proud that NovoPsych has helped so many clinicians improve client outcomes. And what if each theoretical and technological advancement improved therapy outcomes by a further 10%, and clinicians were to adopt one of these innovations each year? After a decade, we’d double therapy’s effectiveness.

The next 10%: Better diagnosis helps client’s receive the right treatment at the right time

MBC is powerful and makes therapy about more effective —but it can still measure the wrong thing. 

If we miss autism, bipolar disorder, ADHD, PTSD, a personality disorder, or a trauma presentation, then our measures can become a beautifully plotted graph of a misunderstanding.

One statistic that keeps me up at night is bipolar disorder:

A large systematic review/meta-analysis found median delays of:

  • 3.5 years from symptom onset to help-seeking, and
  • 6.7 years from symptom onset to correct diagnosis.

That roughly 3.2 years from first help-seeking to correct diagnosis—years where people can be treated for the wrong thing, destabilised by the wrong medication, or simply bounce through services. 

Our internal ambition with a broad-spectrum screening questionnaire is simple: compress that multi-year diagnostic drift into something closer to minutes—a structured, evidence-based intake that flags key differential diagnoses early. That ambition is explicitly part of our roadmap. 

I think back to clients I worked with where I realised, years later, “I framed this wrong.” I missed the bipolar, autism, ADHD, or trauma. Not because I didn’t have enough knowledge about these presentations — but because the space of psychopathology is huge, and I was focussing on the wrong thing. 

Technology can help, and NovoPsych will turn comprehensive, accurate assessments that typically take years into something that takes minutes. We’ll do the science, and I hope that when we package this psychometric assessment in a way that actually makes clinicians’ jobs easier, it will make a big impact. Research and theory aren’t enough; we need this to impacts therapy reality. 

Our hope is that clients are given this adaptive assessment before the first therapy session, which means the clinician knows from session one key areas of focus. Making every first session one that hits the mark. Improving engagement in session one, which could reduce dropout rates, a factor that has outsized impact on poor outcomes. 

Another step further: Ambient psychometric assessments 

One emerging direction in psychometric assessment is to move beyond relying on self-report questions and move towards formal assessment that occurs ambiently. Wright et al. (2026) found AI could rate people’s Big Five personality simply by listening to them talk about random topics.

Instead of only asking people to rate statements on a scale from 1 to 5, this broader AI first approach allows psychometric assessment to happen in the background during a standard clinical session. That matters because client sessions reveal nuance, context, priorities, contradictions, and personally salient concerns that standard questionnaires can miss.

My view is that this kind of assessment could plausibly improve outcomes by 10% if it helps clinicians understand the person more accurately, assess more constructs, and more quickly. Better assessment can lead to better formulation, earlier identification of the key maintaining factors, more precise treatment planning, and more meaningful monitoring over time. Even modest improvements at each of those steps could compound across the course of therapy into a meaningful gain in outcomes.

Another 10%: Dynamic Biopsychsocial Formulations  

I think the future of assessment is about going beyond diagnosis toward more dynamic, biopsychosocial formulations. That means not just asking what diagnosis fits, but what problems are present, what predisposed them, what precipitated them, what perpetuates them, and what protective factors can support recovery. 

 Fried (2026) argues that mental disorders are better understood as overlapping biopsychosocial property clusters than as fixed natural categories, which helps explain heterogeneity, comorbidity, and blurry diagnostic boundaries. Instead of searching for one perfect classification system, he proposes building a richer “mental health atlas” that maps symptoms, traits, context, and dynamics over time.

At NovoPsych, we are increasingly interested in helping clinicians move in this direction: beyond narrow categories and towards richer, more evidence-based dimensional ways of understanding people. Measures like B-HiTOP are a step forward, but still just consider symptoms. The bigger opportunity is assessment that helps build a more complete map of the person in front of us, their context, social determinants of health, beliefs, and symptoms. Because people are richer than diagnoses, and our assessment models should be too.

The next 10%: reflective and deliberate practice, at scale (and AI’s role)

Mental health treatment remains deeply human. Clinicians can have access to all the tools described above, but therapist skill matters more than all of that. There is body of work suggesting that what separates highly effective therapists from the rest of us is not just experience, but how they improve — particularly through intentional training behaviours such as deliberate practice (Chow et al., 2015).

Deliberate practice is not the same as simply reflecting on your work. Reflection helps clinicians make sense of what happened: what they missed, what they did well, where they felt stuck, and what they might do differently next time. Deliberate practice goes a step further. It is a structured method for improving performance through focused work on specific skills, with feedback, repetition, and an appropriate level of challenge.

Reflection builds insight. Deliberate practice builds capability.

In my own development, both have mattered. Critically reflecting on my work helped me identify blind spots; feedback and intentional skill rehearsal helped me improve. 

What particularly interests me is what happens when reflective feedback becomes cheaper, faster, and more accessible.

Historically, getting better as a therapist has depended heavily on expensive supervision, formal training, and limited human feedback loops. AI changes the economics of feedback. Clinicians are already using clinical copilots like Just Ask NovoNote to get timely, specific feedback on their clinical work, and they’re loving it. 

The evidence is not yet mature enough to claim that AI-delivered feedback improves client outcomes directly. But the direction is clear: if clinicians can access high-quality feedback that is safe, ethical, specific, and under their control, it is reasonable to expect this will support better practice over time. Used well, AI can help surface blind spots and provide targeted corrective feedback for a few cents, rather than requiring a few hundred dollars of supervision every time.

Where will the next decade of 10% gains come from?

Here are five hypotheses I’m willing to bet on:

  1. Measurement-Based Care increased adoption
  2. Faster, more accurate triage and differential diagnosis with broad spectrum adaptive assessments
  3. Ambient psychometric assessment that doesn’t rely on self-report
  4. AI and psychometric enabled rich biopsychosocial formulations
  5. Deliberate practice becomes routine (because AI makes feedback easy).

If the above can make therapy 50% more effective, it could go from being “clearly helpful” to “life-changing” for many more people. 

But where will the next five 10% breakthroughs come from? I have no idea, but can’t wait to find out. 

A call to action (for clinicians)

If you’re a therapist reading this: therapy already works. But “works” isn’t the finish line.

In medicine, outcomes improve because measurement and technology improve the system. 

Mental health should be no different.

So here’s my invitation:

Don’t just do more of the same. Experiment—carefully, ethically, and with measurement. Consider how you can make your therapy 10% more effective this year. 

That’s the mission we’re building at NovoPsych, at scale, and I’m excited about it. 

View over 150 of the current psychometric tools available on NovoPsych here.


Dr Ben Buchanan
Clinical Psychologist
NovoPsych Co-founder
Ben@NovoPsych.com
LinkedIn

References: 

Chung, J., & Buchanan, B. (2019). A self-report survey: Australian clinicians’ attitudes towards progress monitoring measures. Australian Psychologist, 54(2), 146–156. https://doi.org/10.1111/ap.12352

Chow, D. L., Miller, S. D., Seidel, J. A., Kane, R. T., Thornton, J. A., & Andrews, W. P. (2015). The role of deliberate practice in the development of highly effective psychotherapists. Psychotherapy, 52(3), 337–345. https://doi.org/10.1037/pst0000015

Fried, E. I. (2026). Mental disorders as homeostatic property clusters: A narrative review. JAMA Psychiatry. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2026.0073

Wright, A. G. C., Ringwald, W. R., Vize, C. E., Eichstaedt, J. C., Angstadt, M., Taxali, A., & Sripada, C. (2026). Assessing personality using zero-shot generative AI scoring of brief open-ended text. Nature Human Behaviour. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-025-02389-x